The Economist: Belarus expects social unrests in 2014

The influential magazine predicts a “high risk” of protests in our country next year.

It follows from a survey conducted by The Economist.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) made a list of countries where social unrests can erupt in 2014. Belarus is among the countries with a high risk of protests. The same group includes other CIS countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Ukraine. Most states with a “high” and “very high” risk of social unrest in 2014 are Asian and African.

“Declines in income and high unemployment are not always followed by unrest. Only when economic trouble is accompanied by other elements of vulnerability is there a high risk of instability. Such factors include wide income-inequality, poor government, low levels of social provision, ethnic tensions and a history of unrest. Of particular importance in sparking unrest in recent times appears to have been an erosion of trust in governments and institutions: a crisis of democracy,” Laza Kekic from the Economist Intelligence Unit says.

Researchers remind that many countries, such as Ukraine, Bulgaria, Brazil, Argentina, Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey, have had protests in the past twelve months. Even places traditionally more muted, such as Japan and Singapore, have seen demonstrators in the streets. Social inequalities and political discontent have spurred citizens to gather. Resistance can be co-ordinated with greater ease than ever in the age of the smartphone.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

USA: We stand with people of Belarus

Washington urges to release and rehabilitate Belarusian political prisoners immediately.

It is said in a statement by representative of the US Department of State Marie Harf on the anniversary of the crackdown on protests against the rigged 2010 presidential elections.

“Three years after the Belarusian Government launched its brutal crackdown on civil society, the democratic opposition, and independent media, we remember the political prisoners who remain in detention and reiterate our call for their immediate and unconditional release and the restoration of their political rights. We note the December 1, 2010 joint statement between our two countries, which affirmed that enhanced respect for democracy and human rights remains central to improving bilateral relations, and is essential to the progress of Belarus and its citizens.

As we mark the third anniversary of the events of December 19, 2010, we stand with the people of Belarus and reaffirm our readiness to help them build a democratic, prosperous, and truly independent European state,” the statement says.

The presidential elections were held in Belarus on December 19, 2010. After polling stations closed, tens of thousands of Belarusians gathered for a rally against the rigged results of the presidential elections. It was the biggest protest rally in Belarus for the last few years. Peaceful protests were brutally suppressed by the police and troops.

Arrests and interrogations of activists lasted for several months. More than 700 people were thrown behind bars, scores of beaten people were taken to hospitals. Criminal cases were opened against 46 leaders and activists of the opposition, including presidential candidates. Many of them received prison terms of from two to six years. Thousands of Belarusians had to flee the country fearing criminal prosecution.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Lukashenka again tries to pull wool over West's eyes

Lukashenka says, that Belarus ready to take any steps to normalize ties with EU.

Belarus is ready to take any steps to normalize its relations with the European Union, but the ball is in the 28-nation bloc's court, Alyaksandr Lukashenka said while accepting the credentials of new foreign ambassadors in Minsk on December 16, BelaPAN said.

Mr. Lukashenka said that Belarus and the EU would have to improve their relations because of the country's proximity to the bloc. "We will have to live together as neighbors," the government's news agency BelTA quoted him as saying.

Mr. Lukashenka said that European businesses were interested to expand ties with Belarus. "I don't want to say that the ball is in your court, this is a journalistic cliche. But it is indeed in your court," he noted.

Minsk is frankly interested in the development of neighborly relations with the EU, Mr. Lukashenka said. "This is due not only to our geographical, historical and cultural proximity, but also to the need to adopt joint measures of response to regional challenges and threats," he added.

Mr. Lukashenka warned that fruitful joint work in the sphere would be possible only on the basis of equal rights and mutual respect. "We have too many external threats. Let's think together how we could fight them instead of leering at each other. That does not suit your or our interests," he said.

Mr. Lukashenka said that Belarus had managed to achieve much progress in relations with the EU in general and its member states, such as France, the Netherlands, Spain and Slovenia, thanks to a "pragmatic" and "positive result-oriented" approach.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Slava Ukraine! Zhyve Belarus!

Liberating struggle is ongoing in our countries today.

I am very glad that Catherine Ashton is going to Kiev. I strongly hope that she will not try and talk the opposition and the people of Ukraine into helping the European Union come back to negotiating with Yanukovich.

I really fear that European leaders would prefer not to notice that the people of Ukraine have already spoken by all the rules of the European Union. The people of Ukraine expressed their will and Europe’s responsibility is to hear that voice and help to implement that will. Such a loud voice of the people have not been heard in a former Soviet republic since the time of the collapse of the totalitarian USSR. European politicians, who offered us to advance to Europe with the help of dictators and autocrats, should understand what is really going on now in Ukraine.

Not so long ago, in the times of the Cold War, the UN recognized the right of national liberation movements for armed struggle. This has become a norm of international law. The right for armed resistance to terrorists, who take hostages, also is not questioned.

That is exactly what is taking place in the post-Soviet space: struggle for national liberation and fight on terrorists, who have taken whole nations as hostages, for the right of people for freedom and independence.

It is just that all of us, all the democratic movements in the former USSR republics, consciously refused from using violence for standing for our rights and base our activities on the principle of non-violent resistance. Please, note that we have refused from violence, but those, who illegally hold to power, like in Belarus, rely exactly on violence and produce more and more punitive institutions and draconian laws for implementing violence.

Once, millions of people in Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia etc. rose against the totalitarian state, fought for your and our freedom. These peaceful uprisings in the countries of Eastern Europe have led to the liberation of whole countries and nations. Thanks to that the European Union was established, the only union of states in the world based on the principles of democracy, human rights and the rule of law. The Baltic States joined it.

It is bitter to hear today when some politicians from the EU’s new member states, especially the young ones, pat us condescendingly on the shoulder and teach us how to fight for freedom. They say: it all depends on you, you have to fight and meanwhile we will deal with your dictators, trade with them, negotiate with them, ensure our security with their help.

We fought for your freedom. We helped you become Europe. And we helped Germany unite. Today we want to live with Yanukovich, Lukashenka and Putin just like you wanted to live with Kadar, Zhivkov, Honecker, Jaruzelski, Gusak and Ceausescu.

We are no idiots.

When Eastern Europe was fighting for freedom not everyone in the West supported this struggle, but there were leaders like US president Reagan, who cast away all the doubts, all the matters of economic and practical reasoning and focused on freedom, democracy and human rights. They used all their authority, economic, financial, intellectual resources to liberate the countries of the Eastern Europe. They won.

Now Europe must do that same for Ukraine, which means for all of us. It has all the capabilities for that. It should not try to buy Yanukovich, offering him more money than the Kremlin does. He counts on that. For that purpose did he undertake all the recent somersaults not signing the Association Agreement. This was not the reason for mass uprisings of Ukrainians, not the integration with the EU. It was a catalyst but not the reason.

Ukrainian people are fighting today for their freedom, for the right to elect and change their public officers via elections, for the dignity and rights of every person, for the values that Europe is based on. Ukraine today is fighting against the recreation of the Soviet Empire that threatens not only to destroy us, but Europe itself. It is not so difficult to understand and to direct European policy at supporting basic values, protecting freedom and democracy. As well as at adopting the toughest measures against those, who encroach on these values.

I am very glad that Catherine Ashton is going to Kiev. Starting from 2006 I have been convincing all my interlocutors among European politicians, analysts, diplomats, members of parliaments that the leaders of the European Union must be on site of events during mass protests against the falsification of elections in Belarus. May be in Ukraine – Europe deems Ukraine more important than Belarus – the European Union will help the people to defend their choice.

I am convinced that without the protests in Belarus in 2010 there would not have been protests in Russia in 2011 against the rigged parliamentary elections and Bolotnaya Square protest in 2012, there would not have been Euromaidan in Ukraine in 2013. This is a liberation struggle, which will go on and end up in victory, and Europe can either support this struggle or pretend that it is accidental and is just the fight for power in the country.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Lukashenka nervous over Euromaidan

The ruler is concerned about the events in Ukraine.

Lukashenka and Ryhor Rapota, the state secretary of the Belarusian-Russian “union state” discussed preparations for a meeting of the Supreme State Council and the development of the bilateral cooperation. The events in Ukraine were among the topics discussed, Interfax news agency reports.

“I'd like to hear your opinion on the Belarusian-Russian relations in the context of the current problems, including the EU-Ukraine conflict, how it influences our relations and what lessons we can learn,” Lukashenka said.

The ruler reminded about the upcoming meeting of the Supreme State Council of the “union state” and offered to discuss preparations for the event.

“I'd like you to inform me about the process of the preparation. Tell me what doesn't match, what wasn't agreed on. Do we need interference of the presidents to reduce debates at the meeting?”, the ruler asked. He proposed to discuss the preparations for a meeting of the Council of Ministers of the “union state” (scheduled for December 13) that prepares issues for discussion at the Supreme State Council.

Rapota said to journalists after the meeting with Lukashenka that the session of the Supreme State Council was scheduled for late December. “I think we announce the date officially in a day or two,” the state secretary said adding that “the last discussions of the date are under way”.

Protests against rejection of European integration have been holding in Ukraine for the second week. Representatives of the Belarusian opposition organisations take active part in rallies. The number of protesters significantly increased after the riot police brutally dispersed a rally on November 30.
Thousands of Ukrainians came to St Michael Square on November 30 to express their protests against the brutal dispersion of the rally.

The opposition gathered several hundreds of thousands of people in Kiev on December 1.

Protesters occupied a part of the Kiev City Hall and the trade unions' building. Unidentified provocateurs and the police had clashes in Bankova Street near the presidential administration.

Ukraine's parliament failed to resign the government as the opposition demanded. In response, demonstrators blocked a number of government buildings, including Yanukovych's residence.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

European Belarus civic campaign’s leader has spoken to Ukrainians.

“Brother Ukrainians!

The whole world and millions of Belarusians are looking at you with hope today and wish you victory. You have come out to the streets in order to stand for your freedom, your right to choose European future for Ukraine. Europe cannot be considered complete without Ukraine, as well as without Belarus. The European Union is the only association of countries in the world, where democracy and human rights are in the forefront.

The right to be Europeans has been given to Ukrainians by birth, and no ruler can trade this right.

The authorities that do not take into account the opinion of the people, hold their political opponents in prisons, cannot be European. Playing with dictators and autocrats do not lead to anything good.

New pro-European leaders will lead Ukraine to Europe, for whom people’s choice is sacred.

Freedom to Yulia Tymoshenko!

Freedom to political prisoners in Ukraine and Belarus!

To your and our freedom!"

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau