Tom Melia: We are ready welcome Belarus with open arms

The deputy assistant to the US Secretary of State Tom Melia gave an exclusive interview to the charter97.org web-site.

The representative of the USA Department of State is taking part in the OSCE Human Dimension Implementation Meeting 2013, which is taking place in Warsaw these days. In the framework of his visit Tom Melia met charter97.org’s editor-in-chief Natalia Radzina and answered her questions.

- Mr. Melia, they call you "a key player in the democracy development around the world". The Washington Post says that you promote democracy in most exotic places – Iraq, Afghanistan, African countries, Eastern Europe, including Belarus. How do you think changes can be achieved in Belarus?

- Ultimately the future of Belarus will be decided by the citizens of Belarus. The role of the international community that wants Belarus to succeed as a sovereign, independent, prosperous, stable country is to support democrats in Belarus and other countries. It’s not our policy, it is not even possible for us to organize things in other countries, but there is a supporting role that we can play in providing political solidarity, diplomatic pressure, sometimes material support to different democratic initiatives in countries like Belarus. So I think working in partnership with the people of Belarus, trying to help them get to where they can elect governments that represent the people of Belarus is our role. As you know, the US and European countries have been quite active in applying pressure on Belarus in response to the crackdown after the December presidential elections three years ago and trying to pressure the authorities in Belarus to move in the European democratic direction.

- The USA maintains a principled attitude towards the Lukashenka regime. However, economic sanctions were lifted from a number of Belarusian enterprises. The political situation in Belarus keeps deteriorating, though. Is the US ready to respond to that in an adequate manner?

- I think you are referring to the sanctions against two Belarusian companies that expired in June. They were actually related to non-proliferation activities that certain companies and the government in Belarus have been supporting in places like Iran, where they are trying to develop nuclear weapons. Those were sanctions for that purpose they expired according to our laws after two years. It wasn’t a response to anything positive in the political situation in Belarus, which, as you say, is continuing to be bad and is deteriorating. We are always looking for ways to engage, and, I think, the government of Belarus knows well, and it was officially stated three years ago in Astana between our two foreign ministers, that the absence of democracy in Belarus is a major impediment to the strengthening of our bilateral relationship. That remains our policy. We are ready to welcome Belarus with open arms. What they need to do is to make sure that there are no political prisoners and moreover that people that have been imprisoned for their political activity not only be released but be restored to the ability to participate in public politics. That’s why it’s important to be at a meeting like this here in Warsaw this week, where we can meet with Belarusian activists, some of whom are coming from inside Belarus, some of whom are forced to live outside of their home country, and to demonstrate our solidarity and support for a better future for Belarus.

- Your article in the book "Shoulder to Shoulder: Forging a Strategic US EU Partnership" is entitled "Supporting Democracy Abroad: Transatlantic Cooperation at a Crossroads". How would you asses the current level of cooperation between the EU and US?

- Certainly in my now three years in the State Department I’ve seen that we and our European partners have built out a wide range of cooperation on different human rights issues. Some of them are global frameworks where we are supporting the rights of LGBT individuals or looking for financial and material support for human rights defenders, who get in trouble with their own governments, more and more European governments are joining with us to put concrete measures into place that will help human rights defenders. At a time, I should say, during these last three years, and especially the last eighteen months, the situation for democratic activists is getting more and more difficult in more and more countries. Not only in the former Soviet Union countries, but including in the countries of the former Soviet Union, we have seen new laws put into place to create new obstacles for democratic activists’ work and their cross-border cooperation with friends in the wider word. Ironically our cooperation with Europe is growing at the same time that the problem is growing.

- Some experts believe that the USA has left Europe or its involvement is insufficient and say that the Americans must come back to Europe…

- I disagree with the premise. I don’t think that the US has left Europe. A lot of us are engaged on a daily basis with European partners in Western and Central Europe to help advance the democratic transitions in countries further to the East. We see important progress in places like Moldova and I would say Georgia and I would say in other places. We are engaged in Europe, Europe is a vital partner to us in the Middle East, in Asia and everything else we do, so there is no diminution of our commitment to Transatlantic cooperation.

- The European Union did not support the economic sanctions that the USA imposed on the Lukashenka regime. It was repeatedly stated that measures were taken for the coordination of the sanctions. Why haven’t these measures still succeeded?

- That is a question better directed to the European officials. Obviously, Europe is 28 countries that each have their own national strategies and national interests, and we engage with the EU as the EU, and also with the individual countries. I would direct your question to the European governments and the to EU about why they are not doing certain things. We continue to think that it is important for us to work closely with the EU and particularly these border countries with the Eastern Partnership.

- But the American government always says that they try to coordinate the work with the European Union in their policy on Belarus, though we can’t see this coordination.

- All I can say is that it is a part of our conversations. Two-three weeks ago I was in Brussels for a formal bilateral dialogue with the EU, in which several of us, senior officials from Washington, spent two days with our counterparts in the EU discussing a range of shared interests in the world, and Belarus was definitely a part of that conversation. We were reminded on that occasion that the EU’s policy depends on finding a consensus with 28 different governments, and that is obviously even more complicated than the development of the US foreign policy.

- You worked for Hillary Clinton's Department of State. Now you work with John Kerry. Will the Department's approaches to Belarus change in the future?

- I think you’ll see mainly continuity of our principled posture towards Belarus. Secretary Kerry has obviously developed some new initiatives in the Middle East and different parts of the world, but he is giving every indication to build on what Secretary Clinton did. That includes our support to civil society in Belarus and other countries and our support to trying to persuade the Belarusian government to do the right thing in terms of its own people.

- Before the Department of State, you worked for Freedom House where you were responsible for the program to help democratic activists in dictatorial countries. Are you more of an official or a human rights defender?

- I was by Hillary Clinton in the State Department precisely because of my background in human rights work in Freedom House and NDI. I bring that perspective to my work every day and it is an interesting thing about our system that people are coming from outside with different kinds of backgrounds. I think I have been able to add that activist perspective to American diplomacy in this region.

- You helped me personally, when I escaped Belarus and lived underground in Moscow, having been released from prison. Why did you help a usual journalist from Belarus?

- Because it was the right thing to do and the United States, as in this case, uses our diplomatic and our program resources to help people continue their work even if they are forced to move outside the country. So I was honored to be able to help in that case.

- In January 2011, when a military coup virtually had taken place in Belarus, you came to Minsk at Hillary Clinton’s personal request. How would you assess the situation in Belarus after three years?

- I wish I could say there was a lot or forwards movement towards restoring a democratic process, but obviously there has not been. We have another set of election on the horizon in the next couple of years, we are hoping that Belarusian people have a chance for a more open and genuine election process in which they can choose their officials. We will continue to try to work to support democrats in Belarus and also to try to engage the government so that they can see that the future of a more prosperous, stable, independent Belarus lies in the democratic direction, that all of the goals that Belarus has will be advance by becoming more democratic. It would be better for the people, it would be better for the country.

- The EU is trying to establish a new dialogue with Lukashenka today. It is mainly lobbied by the countries that are economically dependent on Lukashenka. How can this realpolitik be opposed?

- The challenge is not to try to oppose countries pursuing their national interests, the challenge is to broaden the conversation to think about the longer term kind of Europe that we all want to see, which is one in which rights respecting democratic governments pursue national interests based on the will of the people they represent. That is the challenge for us. It is not trying to oppose countries acting in what they think of as their national interest, the challenge is to round up that conversation to help them, particularly those that are committed to European integration, to understand that there is a larger European dimension to this.

- Today is the birthday of Ales Bialiatski. What would tell Ales Bialiatski and other political prisoners in Belarus?

- I hope the next time I talk to Ales it will be out in the public, perhaps in his office at home or perhaps here at the HDIM. We hope he gets out and returns to his family very soon. As you know it was a year ago that the State Department presented the human right award to Ales, and his wife and others from Belarus were present here in Warsaw at the presentation that we made. Hopefully it won’t be another year that goes by and sees him behind bars.

We continue to press to only for the release of the political prisoners but for the restoration of their political rights, and hopefully by the time the next elections roll around there will be more voices competing in the political market.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Lukashenka is trying on Assad and Gaddafi’s fate

The Zapad-2013 military exercise is taking place by the Libyan and Syrian scenarios.

According to the plans of the exercise’s organizers, the Russian army is assisting Lukashenka in the case a civil war breaks out, the Moskovskij Komsomolets reports.

Regardless of how many sudden inspections the Russian president and Defense Minister arrange, the main event of the year in terms of the combat training of the neighboring country’s armed forces will still be the autumn military practice. This year it is called Zapad-2013 and is organized jointly with Belarus’ armed forces. It is notable that this time it is not repelling external aggression of the regular armies of the neighboring countries that is being practiced, but the unusual for armed forces function – fight against Belarusian “illegal paramilitary groups” in the conditions of a destabilized foreign and domestic situation. At the first glance such an exercise plot, probably, makes the citizens of Belarus ask themselves unpleasant questions: will their army fight against its own people? But considering the latest world experience, it becomes apparent that it makes sense to prepare for this kind of conflicts first of all.

Russia’s Defense Ministry reports that the outcomes and experience of local armed conflicts of the recent decades have been taken as the basis for developing the exercise’s plot. The exercise’s high command – Belarus’ Defense Minister Jury Zhadobin and the General Staff Commander of Russia’s armed forces Valeriy Gerasimov – put the main emphasis on modern approaches to using a regional army groups.

According to the scenario, approved by Lukashenka, “extremist groups and bands” have penetrated into the territory of the Republic of Belarus aiming at “carrying out terroristic acts and destabilizing the situation in the country”. At the same time the extremists have external support in the form of material and technical assistance, arms and equipment – like in Libya and Syria. At the early preparation stages there were even talks that protest actions of the political opposition to Lukashenka would be staged. Now they apparently decided to refuse from that.

For stabilizing the alarming situation in the Republic of Belarus subdivisions of Russian armed forces have been promptly redeployed, which are fighting the imaginary enemy in cooperation with subdivisions of the Belarusian army.

Altogether the exercise will take place in six polygons: Brest, Gozh, Asipovichy, Obuz-Lesnouski in Belarus, Pravdinski and Khmelevka – in Kaliningrad region. A little fewer than 13000 of manpower are taking part, out of which 2500 are Russian military men and around 300 officers from other Collective Security Treaty organization countries. Simultaneously about 10 more thousand Russian troops are having an training not linked with the military exercise’s central plotline. Particularly, for instance, missile men are using operational and tactic complexes Iskanders and Tochkas as well as multiple rocket launchers Smerch and Uragan in Lug, whereas the sailors of the Northern Fleet are carrying out a large-scale operation in Barents and Kara Seas – they are looking for the enemy’s submarines, protecting the coastline from the enemy’s sea-borne landing. Thirty ships, including an aviation carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov, are involved in the operation under the command of the Commander in Chief of Russian Navy.

Already on Sunday 500 troops of the Taman division made a forced march for protecting Belarus’ Western border from the penetration of terrorists. Their colleagues looked for the distribution of illegal paramilitary groups in woods, arranged roadblocks and protection of important objects, screened the air jammed the enemy’s communication systems, mined roads and destroyed bridges, arranged ambushes.

For Russian troops such exercise is the experience of organized and planned anti-partisan war in the territory of another state – like the ones the Western countries led in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Political prisoner Autukhovich cuts abdomen in prison

Mikalai Autukhovich had to resort to extreme measures protesting against illegal sanctions.

The businessman from Vaukavysk, who serves his term in prison No. 1 in Hrodna, injured himself – he cut his abdomen with a razor.

The information was received by Platform Innovation human rights organisation from a source.

Mikalai Autukhovich has been receiving unfair sanctions for the last two years. New sanctions are imposed when the old ones expire. On September 4, 2013, the political had a month until the expiry of all previous sanctions when he was accused of committing a new violation. The new disciplinary sanction deprived him of an opportunity to receive parcels and meet with his relatives that is allowed to other inmates.

Mikalai Autukhovich was punished allegedly for failure to be in bed after the bedtime signal on August 26, 2013.

The political prisoner's response to the new sanction can be explained by his successful attempts to avoid any violations not to give grounds to prison officers to punish him, the source says.

“As a military officer, he doesn't find it difficult to wake up early and go to bed on time. He got used to it. He got used not to talk to anyone for six months, just a couple of common phrases in order not to give grounds for provocations,” the source says.

The prison authorities try to stick the label of a “persistent violator of prison rules” to Mikalai Autukhovich. This status allows charging him with violating article 411 of the Criminal Code (failure to obey orders from prison staff) and adding another prison term or placinge him under police supervision after the release.

“If the prison authorities have these aims, Mikalai Autukhovich can remain behind bars for a long time. He has been in prison longer than other political prisoners. He understands perfectly that he shouldn't give a ground for sanctions. He tries to avoid it. The information we received shows that pressure on him has increased,” Platform Innovation thinks.

Human rights activists sent requests to Hrodna prison No. 1 and the Corrections Department.

Mikalai Autukhovich, a veteran of the Soviet War in Afghanistan, was sentenced to 5 years in a maximum security prison in May 2010 for possession of five cartridges for a hunting rifle.

Human rights defenders declared him a political prisoner who was punished for his anti-corruption activity.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Young Front to run in local “election”

Young Front has announced its decision to run in the local council election. The campaign will be carried out in Salihorsk.

The statement was made at a press conference by Young Front leaders Anastasia Dashkevich and Mikalai Dzemidzenka and YF activist from Salihorsk Ivan Shyla, Radio Svaboda reports.

The activists propose 26 YF candidates for the local election. They plan to have their candidates in all 40 constituencies of the town.

The new strategy supposes focusing on one particular town to gain maximum results. Being unable to launch election campaigns in all Belarusian town, Young Front chose Salihorsk, an industrial centre with rather active residents and acute social problems, including problems of the potash industry.

Young Front members invite political activists from other towns run in the “election” in Salihorsk.

Anastasia Dashkevich says: “The local 'election' for us is a chance to collect signatures and talk to people. We shouldn't forget that the presidential 'election' is coming soon.”

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Viktar Hanchar and Anatol Krasouski kidnapped 14 years ago

The guilty of kidnapping of the oppositionists haven’t been punished in spite of proofs and evidences.

Head of the Central Election Commission Viktar Hanchar and businessman Anatol Krasouski were kidnapped on September 16, 1999. They were walking down Fabrychnaya Street after visiting a bathhouse. Glass fragments from Krasouski’s car were later found on the site of their forceful disappearance. Also blood was found on the glass fragments. A genomic examination defined with a probability of 99.9998% it was blood of Viktar Hanchar.

The mass media reported that there was a witness who had seen a red BMW car with three persons inside near the bathhouse on the day Hanchar and Krasouski had disappeared. A woman, who worked in the bathhouse, heard cries for help, noise and male voices.

The official investigation said “Hanchar and Krasouksi were kidnapped and taken in an unknown direction. Their further location is not possible to find out... “

Later, evidence of involvement of Belarusian authorities in disappearances of active opponents of Lukashenka’s regime was revealed. Former head of the Main Criminal Militia Department of the Minister of Internal Affairs General Mikalai Lapatsik told in his report to the interior minister details of kidnapping of Viktar Hanchar, Anatol Krasouski, and former interior minister Yury Zakharanka, disappeared some months before:

“The catch and further elimination of Zakharanka was carried out by a group of soldiers led by Paulichenka (the commander of military unit 3214). A similar operation was carried out by Paulichenka and his group on 16.09.1999 to catch and kill Hanchar and Krasouski. The planned place of burial is a special plot on Paunochnya Cemetery.”

As former chief of the Minsk detention facility #1 Aleh Alkaeu stated, oppositionists Hanchar, Krasouski, and Zakharanka were killed by a special execution pistol that was given on an order of former minister of internal affairs Yury Sivakou.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Paviel Sieviaryniec: Lukashenka has taken hostages at every front

The dictator expects that the arrest of priest Lazar will make Vatican open Europe for the Belarusian regime.

Such an opinion was shared by a political prisoner Paviel Sieviaryniec, as he commented on priest Lazar’s having been charged with state treason.

“Church in general is a foreign force and threat for the current regime. We know very well the price of those charges that are fabricated in KGB jail and we believe neither the investigation nor the processes in the spirit of Stalin times. I would remind that over five thousand people have already signed the demand to release the arrested priest Lazar”, - the politician noted.

He believes that the Lukashenka regime has understood that neither oil, nor gas, nor even potassium is the most profitable kind of goods, but people.

“You may take political prisoners and believers hostages. You may take Uralkali’s head hostage. But in the case with Baumgartner the authorities even name the price and openly bargain. The same, in my view, is going on with the rest, but in a more concealed manner. On the matter of political prisoners they speak with Europe, on the priest - with Vatican. Apart from being the largest Christian church, Vatican is also diplomacy, influence and the possibility to act all around the world. I do not rule out that the current regime shows or demands from Vatican that it would work in the European direction. To put it differently, that it would open Europe for the regime. I think Lukashenka still has such hopes left from the time that he visited the Pope. Since the Catholic Church is not following the way of opening doors for the dictator, the regime takes a hostage in response”, - the political prisoner is convinced.

He highlighted that the policy of terror is the base of the current regime.

“I also recollect the recent case of Viachaslau Sheleh, who had his daughter kidnapped. These methods cannot be qualified as anything else but terrorism. As a rule, authorities are compelled to negotiate with terrorists. But purposeful concessions to terrorists are considered a weakness. Now the Kremlin, that has brought Lukashenka up to its own trouble, does not know how to wash off the shame. Neither do Europeans know what to do with him. But deep down the main responsibility of getting rid of this regime is on us, the Belarusians”, - Paviel Sieviaryniec concluded.

We would remind that on 26 July Lukashenka said about the detention of an agent of Belarusian special services, who had worked for foreign states via the representatives of the Catholic Church.

The special service agent, the ruler specified, “did not only provide information, but due to his activities people suffered, who worked abroad”. In some time it became known that priest Vladislav Lazar had been detained. He is charged with passing money to a “spy”.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Passing the buck

Prices for petrol, vodka and utilities are growing in Belarus and the authorities are looking for whom to blame for the crisis.

Economic problems are piling up in Belarus day after day. Bright evidence to that is a sharp price growth in utility tariffs within the past few weeks. They country’s leadership is being reproached for shifting the problems of providing budget incomes onto the citizens and attempting to blame Belarusians for their own economic miscalculations instead of approaching the situation in its complexity and trying to resolve it, the Novye Izvestiya reports.

Petrol went up in price in Belarus at the beginning of September. This happened because the excise duty on car types petrol has grown by 45% and by 70% - on diesel fuel. Before that fuel had become expensive in the country on 16 January this year and no plans had been scheduled on raising the prices. Several weeks after the petrol vodka became more expensive. Apart from that it turned out that utility tariffs would be gradually growing. According to government’s plans, they should comprise 15% of the average basket of goods. They are now at the level of 7-8%.

Everyone from the heads of executive committees to Lukashenka advised Belarusians to live within their means after the crisis of 2011. Country’s economic agencies even calculated how to do that: operational efficiency should not surpass the salary growth. But the successful year of 2012 gave economic optimism to the Belarusian leadership again, and the authorities started speaking of an average salary not of $500, like before, but of $1000. However in 2013 the country has faced economic problems again – foreign trade balance has gone negative, with the decrease in the potassium fertilizers market a decrease in budget incomes is expected. In addition to that Russia threatens to ban Belarusian dairy products from its market. Together with the external problems an internal one has aggravated: the salary growth has again surpassed the labour productivity. Speaking simpler, Belarusians get more than the economy earns.

An acute problem that the country is facing is the outflow of working force. According to consulting agencies, 1-1.3 million Belarusians went to work in Russia only last year, which is a third of the employable population. Naturally, if the salary goes down in the country, the flow of labour migrants will increase. The government suggested to stop the migration in several ways: introduce a tax on being jobless, impose higher utility tariffs, higher education and health care fees on the citizens, not working for the national economy.

Belarus’ Ministry of Internal Affairs even tried to identify such people by visiting apartments in rounds. When all these measures failed to be implemented in practice, the authorities concluded that such workers should be deprived of a pension. According to Lukashenka’s recent decree, only those Belarusians can now claim the minimal pension, who have worked no less than 10 year in the country making the required payments into the social security fund. Previously 5 years were enough for that.

If, according to the government, motorists were guilty of the 2011 crises, who purchased cheap cars in Europe before the introduction of higher tax duties, then now everyone who goes abroad and takes foreign currency out is to blame.

The worst are the ones who prefer buying cheap clothes, footwear, perfumes in Lithuania and Poland. Back in summer it was Belarus’ Prime Minister Mikhail Miasnikovich who took offence for Belarusians not wanting to buy domestic goods, but spending billions abroad instead. Last Friday Lukashenka suggested a very simple solution to the problem: to make people going abroad pay $100. Indeed, you can have both – smaller queues at the border and higher budget incomes.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

European carrot for a monster

Lukashenka’s power is under a threat, and the European Union should not save Europe’s last dictator.

“I was released from one prison into another, a bigger one”, - a youth leader Dzmitry Dashkievich said, having left the place of his imprisonment last week.

It may seem that the number of political prisoners in Belarus has started decreasing. However, political prisoners are not being released by the order of the dictator, but because the terms of their imprisonments expired. On 28 August Dzmitry Dashkievich was released, Aliaksandr Frantskievich was released in a few days after that. The freedom is very relative – after the release they will be under police supervision and may be sent to prison again any moment. This already happened with other oppositionists.

It is important to remember that Dashkievich did not simply spent his prison term in full, but was held in custody for a year longer than the initial sentence for not recognizing himself guilty and “bad behavior” behind bars. Like many other political prisoners, in prison he underwent physical and psychological pressure and was kept in inhuman conditions. Over ten political prisoners remain in Belarus in such conditions, including a former presidential candidate Mikalaj Statkievich and the leader of the human rights movement Ales Bialiatski. Last month the list of political prisoners grew longer by two sentenced opposition activists, detained priest and a psychiatrist, who criticized the authorities.

However, even in these conditions the lobbyists of the Lukashenka regime are able to speak with European politicians of “good will” on the part of the regime. Actually, it could have been much worse: they could have not released Dashkievich, but add another additional prison term for him. And yes, another political prisoner Hajdukou was not sentenced to 8 years in prison, like the prosecutor had initially demanded, but “only” to a year. The ruler of Belarus is very kind!

But let’s leave the sarcasm alone: there are 185 names in the list of political prisoner for the 20 years of the regime’s existence. And at least four disappeared political opponents. And hundreds of thousands of the people, who left the country because of political persecution. And complete absence of investigations of human rights violations, a stable atmosphere of impunity, the continuation of repressions.

For all these 20 years with regular periodicity the EU offered the Lukashenka regime different carrots for engaging him into the “European orbit”. The monster swallowed these carrots, asked for more, and took new hostages in the meanwhile in order to exchange them for another portion of carrots. That is why one cannot but be surprised by the naivety, or rather cynicism of those European and Belarusian politicians and experts, who are now suggesting the expansion of economic cooperation and renewal of the political dialogue with Belarus without the release and exoneration of all the political prisoners and the start of systematic democratic changes.

These lobbyists are again referring to the necessity of having a dialogue and the usefulness of the carrot policy. They are again using the argument that if the EU made steps towards Lukashenka, “the political prisoners could probably be soon released”. Because there allegedly were some misty promises of that on the part of the dictator. This compromising position is a total contradiction to the demands of Lukashenka’s principled opponents, including the political prisoners, remaining in custody.

The voting on a report on the EU’s policy towards Belarus (Paletskis’ report), scheduled for this week, clearly reflects this tension between the principled and compromising positions. After multiple discussions and introduction of amendments by the parliament’s Foreign Committee there are indirect and even direct recommendations of broadening the economic cooperation with Belarus left in the report’s draft. At the same time there have been no positive changes in the country. This report, in its essence, declares the EU’s position on Belarus. If it is supported by the European Parliament like it is, it will be an approving signal to the dictatorial regime and a discouraging signal to those, who are fighting for democracy and the rule of law in Belarus.

In Europe they still do not want to learn the lesson of the twenty years: Lukashenka is not capable of sticking to an agreement. His representatives may give cloudy promises, he may act like he is interest in a partnership, but any agreement will be broken. This happened multiple times. A fine example of that was the very fresh story of the “potassium war” with Russia and the arrest of a Russian businessman Vladislav Baumgartner, who came to Minsk by the Prime-Minister’s invitation. Lukashenka decided to use the practice that he has long and successfully used in the Western front – taking hostages – for forcing a Russian company Uralkali to cancel its decision to withdraw from the joint cartel with a Belarusian partner.

It is not important how this story ends for Uralkali, it is important that it clearly shows how Lukashenka makes deals. He is able of biting any hand, even the one that feeds him and provides for his wellbeing. In this case this means oil, gas and loans from Russia. This, by the way, completely disproves the argument of the lobbyists (and the regime itself) that Belarus “will go to Russia” in the case the West increases pressure on Lukashenka.

It is surprising, but Europe has still not realized the difference between the approach to business in the EU and Belarus. There is no independent business in Belarus – it is completely controlled by the regime and the system that Lukashenka’s family has built. It is exactly the dictator who in the end decides, who can and who cannot do business in Belarus. A foreign investor, coming to Belarus, is measured in the same way – it is Lukashenka, who decides everything.

Moreover, foreign business is considered a regime’s leverage of influence on the EU policy. We saw the examples of such successful influence through business connections in 2011, when the enterprises of an oligarch Jury Chyzh from Lukashenka’s entourage had EU sanctions lifted. This was done with the help of Latvia. Separating the pragmatics of economic cooperation from a political dialogue in words, Lukashenka skillfully ties them together in practice.

However the regime’s difficult economic situation and Russia’s tough position led to the situation, when Lukashenka has nowhere to go for help apart from the EU – for new loans and the expansion of trade. The threat of not being able to last until the 2015 presidential elections becomes real for Lukashenka.

A lot now depends on whether the possible economic carrot from the EU becomes a buoy for the regime that is unwilling to change. Or instead of exchanging “positive” signals the EU, including the European Parliament, presents the regime in distress with an ultimatum – “change or drown”. The European Union instead of trying to broaden the economic cooperation and “improve the relations” with the regime should make it change and implement reforms, which will ensure a democratic, successful European future for Belarus. It is hard to imagine a better time for putting forward tough demands, than now.

Calling economic cooperation a carrot for the regime, inviting European business to deal with Belarus the EU should understand: entering economic relations with the Lukashenka regime European business is responsible for financial and political consolidation of the dictatorial regime, the continuation of repressions and the fate of political prisoners. Moreover, it risks its own assets, its people and its reputation.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

The Arguments&Facts: There will be no Lukashenka in 2015

The Belarusian ruler has brought the country to the verge of economic collapse, the Russian media reports.

The arrest of Russian Uralkali corporation’s director general Vladislav Baumgartner has again put Belarus on the verge of economic collapse (already third in the last 4 years after the collapses of 2009 and 2011), and the president’s rating – under the threat of falling to the historical low, after which he will not be able to get elected in 2015, the president of a Russian research center Political Analytics writes in The Arguments&Facts newspaper.

Lukashenka’s supporters often speak of some “economic miracle” and “innovation miracle” that “Lukashenka’s model” showed. In reality it is not Lukashenka’s economy, but his false statistics and aggressive propaganda that show miracles.

Although, these “indicators” fall into pieces once compared to the production figures in actual values, which are constant at any prices. Thus, Lukashenka’s statistics says that the GDP allegedly reached 193% in 2012 as compared to the level of 1990, but any economy’s main indicator – energy production – dropped from 39.5 billion kw-hr in 1990 to 30.8 billion kw-hr in 2012, i.e. only comprises 78% of the 1990 level.

Lukashenka’s tightrope walking statistics draw the industrial output numbers for 2012 at the level of 258% against 1990. There is nothing even close to that in natural values: the main article of Belarusian exports – oil processing – dropped from 39.422 million tons in 1990 to 21.667 in 2012, i.e. only comprises 55% of the 1990 level.

Belarusian number 2 exports good – mineral fertilizers (almost exclusively potassium) – was produced in the amount of 6.7 million tons in 1988, and in 2013 the output is only expected to be at the level of 5.3 million tons or 79% of the top Soviet levels.

The same situation is there in the construction and investment sphere: Lukashenka’s statistics speaks of alleged 224% against the level of 1990, the natural values though show a completely different situation: 5.650 square meters of accommodation were built in 1989 and 4.487 – in 2012 or 79% against the 1989 level.

If in 2009 Aliaksandr Lukashenka managed to not let his electoral rating drop, then in 2010-2011 he did exactly the opposite: Lukashenka provoked an unexpectedly strong response reaction of Russian authorities, which replaced too preferential 50% discount on gas, oil and oil products prices with higher prices closer to the market ones (which grew in early 2011 in addition to that).

As the result Belarus’ trade balance deficiency in goods grew in the 1st quarter of 2011 from 1.2 to 3 billion USD (90% of which accounted for the trade with Russia), serious foreign currency deficiency emerged in Belarus, which went even stronger after Russian TV’s critical reports.

The consequence of that was a landsliding exchange rate of Belarusian rouble against United States dollar, which dropped by 3 times. The prices grew at almost the same rate and Belarusian population became respectively poorer.

As the result, Lukashenka’s rating dropped to 20.5% in September 2011, according to the IICEPS, having become the lowest in the whole 17-year history of Lukashenka rating’s measurements. Lukashenka, of course, panicked after that and agreed to sell Beltransgaz to “evil Russian oligarchs” even cheaper than the price he used to call too low and extortionate before the economic collapse.

Having obtained Beltransgaz, Russian first decreased the oil price for Belarus in early 2012 by 10% and the gas price by 28%. The actual discount was even higher, because the market oil and prices grew again by 10-20%.

In general, Russia started again selling oil roughly 45% cheaper to Belarus, and gas – 50% cheaper than the world market prices. At the same time in late 2012 - early 2013 Russia decreased the oil and gas prices for Belarus by 3-5% again. As the result the trade balance stopped showing a loss and started showing profit instead. The situation in the economy started improving, salaries and pensions started reaching the pre-collapse level.

Now Lukashenka’s economy started going out of order again: whereas in the first half year of 2012 Belarus had a positive trade balance (exports were higher than imports) of 1.9 billion USD, then in the first half year of 2013 it was replaced by a negative trade balance of 1.7 billion of an increasing character: in the first quarter imports exceeded exports by 0.6 billion and in the second quarter – already by 1.1 billion. The exports of Belarusian goods dropped from 25.3 in the first half a year in 2012 to 19.2 billion in the first half of year of 2013 or by 24%. Even Lukashenka’s artful statistics is compelled to show the industrial output decrease by 6-10% in May-July and the GDP decrease by 0.5% in the second quarter (against the same periods in 2012) – the real decrease is, of course, higher.

This time, it seems, the 2011 scenario will repeat, when the “harmless war game” led to serious economic sanctions on the part of Russia, the result of which was the collapse of Belarusian rouble’s exchange rate and Lukashenka’s rating by 3 times alike.

At first the flabby conflict of Lukashenka and Uralkali also led to a noticeable drop in potassium fertilizers prices, which are the second most significant article of Belarusian exports after oil products (7%), and in Belarusian budget incomes (10%): if last year Belarusian manufacturers used to sell it for 742 USD for a ton, than this year – for 638, while the Chinese have a big discount – down to 593 dollars.

After Lukashenka’s conflict with Uralkali analysts started speaking of the price dropping down to 270-300 dollars! Rospotrebnadzor started speaking of a ban on the imports of Belarusian dairy products (6% of all Belarusian exports, 75-80% of which goes to Russia), Rosselkhoznadzor mentioned a ban on Belarusian meat (3% of Belarusian exports, 96-97% foes to Russia). Finally, Transneft claimed that oil shipments to Belarus would be decreased by 25%, whereas oil products exports account for 34% of whole Belarusian exports! It seems this is only the beginning: statements demanding the release of Uralkali’s head were made by Russian MFA, Ministry of Economic Development, Administration of the President of the Russian Federation.

One may only guess what a huge loss the Belarusian economy will suffer, when the Kremlin turns on all the possible “punishment measures” in response to Lukashenka’s actions against Uralkali. For example the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation does not yet refuse from providing Belarus with another loan of 440 million dollars, but it could: Belarus’ current debt has reached 16 billion dollars, and the country is hardly capable of paying it back…

After all the “influence measures” on the part of Russia Belarus’ growing negative trade balance will only grow harder. This will inevitably lead to the collapse of the national currency and, as a consequence, another impoverishment of Belarus’ population, which will lead to Lukashenka’s rating falling down to a new historical low of 10-15%, after which it will be impossible to be restored to anything above 25% by 2015 presidential elections. And this will mean an inevitable defeat.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Lukashenko about devaluation, potassium and Myasnikovich's retired

The governor went to the factory "Motovelo" and made a number of loud statements.

President Alexander Lukashenko calls for increased efforts to boost exports, including potash.

"There are places where they are read to buy our products. You must reach these places and sell there,” he said when visiting OAO Motovelo on 6 September.

Alexander Lukashenko demands efficient work from the government officials and an inflow of foreign exchange into the country. He said that no artificial conditions, including the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, will be created. “There will be no devaluation of the Belarusian ruble to suit production sector needs,” the President said.

“Your direct duty is to trade. What is the problem? We have our representatives (ambassadors) in 50 countries, even more. Take and sell potash fertilizers which, by the way, you have started to do today,” the President said. “Everyone should work to their level best. Today Deputy Foreign Ministers circle the globe together with representatives of Belarusian Potash Company seeking contacts in order to overcome the crisis,” Alexander Lukashenko noted.

The head of state also touched upon the Belaruskali sale issue. “They say why he does not sell Belaruskali? One should be an idiot to sell the company at its bottom price,” the President said.

Lukashenko has promised to dismiss government officials and company chiefs for failure to meet inventory clearance and production growth targets by 1 January 2014.

“If you fail to do what you promised by 1 January, neither Semashko nor company chiefs will keep their jobs. We will also assess the actions of the Premier. He might follow them hand in hand. I just have no other choice,” the head of state said.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

FIDH: Dashkevich's release is not sign of improving situation

Dashkevich's release is not sign of improving situation in Belarus, says international rights organization.

The International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) warned in its August 30 statement that the release of opposition activist Zmitser Dashkevich could not be regarded as a sign of an improving human rights situation in Belarus. "The international community must not be misled. The release of Zmitser Dashkevich does not reflect any improvement of the human rights situation in the country," said FIDH President Karim Lahidji. According to the FIDH president, 11 political prisoners remain behind bars in Belarus. "Human rights defenders, journalists, and activists are continuously harassed by the regime. In this context, the recent EU suspension of the visa ban on the Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei [Uladzimir Makey] can just find no justification," he stressed. The FIDH called on the Belarusian authorities to restore Mr. Dashkevich's civil and political rights and release all of the remaining political prisoners. "We further call on the EU to take such decisions of Aleksander Lukashenko [Alyaksandr Lukashenka] for what they actually are and not to be further deceived by the siren song of the regime," warned the FIDH president.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

We will remember you, Aleh

It is three years today since charter97.org web-site’s founder Aleh Biabienin died.

These were three endless years. Having clenched our teeth, we covered the electoral campaign, then ended up in prisons, then were compelled to go to emigration. Today we keep working, but the events of that day 3 September 2010 will always stay in the memory.

Aleh’s worried wife called me in the morning. He did not spend the night at home. He did not come to the office either, although at 7 a.m. he would usually be at his working place. We started calling acquaintances, then hospitals, police stations… No results. In the end, Aleh’s brother and his friends Andrei Sannikov, Dzmitry Bandarenka, Fiodar Pauliuchenka and Aliaksandr Atroshchankau went to the summer house. They found Aleh there…

I remember, when Aliaksandr Atroshchankau called me and told everything, I almost bit through my own hand in order not to scream. Then came a storm of phone calls from journalists. One of them, a reporter of Russia TV channel Andrei Kachura called from Moscow and said “Natasha, tell me it is not true”. More than anything else in the world I wanted then to tell him: “Yes, Andrei, it is not true”.

Aleh was found in a noose, made of a child hammock’s rope. He was not hanging, he was practically on his knees. The skin on finger knuckles was scratched, everything in the summer house was in perfect order. Nothing was scattered, everything cleaned and washed. There were two bottles of Belarusian Balsam demonstratively standing in the corner. A connoisseur of good alcohol, he would even disdain take a taste of that.

Later, already in morgue friends will see scratches and bruises on his body. But the investigation would not be interested in that. Aleh will be fast buried, and the version of a murder for professional reasons will not even be considered. Even a criminal case will not be started. The official verdict – suicide.

It did not matter that this person loved his wife, son and life. On the day before he was going to go to a cinema with friends, made appointements with colleagues for a week ahead, agreed to be one of the managers on Andrei Sannikov’s electoral campaign, who by that time had already announced his intention to run for president.

The case was quickly hushed up, including by the efforts of some Western ambassadors, who invited so-called OSCE experts to Minsk. European bureaucrats, suspecting nothing, spoke with prosecutor office’s employees, studied the official investigation’s materials and returned the same verdict as the law enforcement agencies, controlled by the authorities. At that time a “dialogue” of the West and Lukashenka was going ad nothing, even a murder of a journalist, should not cloud this process.

I remember as journalists, politicians, human rights activists approached me at the funeral and they all said the same: “If anything, keep in mind that I am not going to commit suicide…” Everyone, who knew Aleh well, did not believe in the official investigation’s version.

Everyone was scared. The way Aleh was killed showed that the authorities could not only kidnap and kill their opponents, like it happened with Viktar Hanchar, Jury Zakharanka, Anatol Krasouski, Dzmitry Zavadski. In the period of a “dialogue” with the West they would kill slier, masking murders as suicides, car crushes, accidents.

With Aleh’s murder the authorities tried to reach several goals: the death of one of the managers of Sannikov’s team was supposed to scare his supporters and those, who were going to join Lukashenka’s rival electoral campaign. This was also supposed to scare journalists of independent media, having shown them the limits, which the charter97.org web-site constantly violated, publishing revealing articles, despite criminal case had been started against it and the editorial office raided.

In three months, when I was in KGB jail, Ihar Shunievich, who is now the Minister of Internal Affairs, personally confessed to me during a night interrogation, that Aleh was killed. “We are considering the version, that his murder was beneficial for some foreign countries for destabilizing the situation before the elections”, - the general then said with an air of importance.

No other state, apart from Belarus, did not benefit from Aleh’s murder on the eve of the elections. But the fact remains a fact – the head of KGB’s corruption and organized crime department, future Minister of Interior confessed that the journalist was killed.

It only seems that KGBsts are marvelous psychologists. They can also be observed and respective conclusions can be made. From time to time during interrogations the prison’s head, colonel Arlou, made a slips of the tongue saying that the murders of politicians and journalists was not KGB’s did, but the one of “other agencies”, which actually confirmed the fact that “death squads” existed in the country and eliminated people by the order from someone “above”.

You can surprise no one in today’s Belarus with that. All the law enforcement agencies are submitted to a single grouping led by Lukashenka and his son Viktar. They are just servants. If someone is murdered, their task is to close their eyes and conceal all traces of a crime. If there is an order to arrest someone, they do.

Today it is quite funny to read the analysis of KGB’s legal complaints on Uralkali’s director general Vladislav Baumgartner. KGB does not have any complaint on him! There is a political order to take a hostage. All the rest is the matter of technicalities, which has been practiced very well on political rivals.

In a criminal state it is the lawfulness and kingpin’s will that rule. Europeans and Russian alike should have long understood that instead of trying to bargain, please or reform someone, who have long crossed all the moral borders.

Today all the world’s attention is on Assad, who is killing hundreds thousands fellow citizens. Lukashenka, who has been murdering people much more quietly for 20 year with no missies and chemical weapons, keeps nicely existing in the shadow.

It hurts that not many remember Aleh today, even colleagues. Aleh Biabienin was not just a journalist, he was a wonderful father, loyal friend, loved his family, his cause and fought for his country. He lost his life.

We will remember you, Aleh.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Aliaksandr Alesin: Assad will use Belarusian technologies in war with US

The cutting edge technologies that Belarus supplied to Syria are used against precision-guided munition.

Military observer Aliaksandr Alesin spoke to charter97.org about possible deliveries of Belarusian weapons to Syria.

“It's possible that in addition to supplies of Belarusian MiG-23 bombers to Syria, the aviation plant in Baranavichy repaired Syrian Su-7B and Su-22 fighter-bombers. They were widely supplied by the Soviet Union to Arab Middle East and all over the world. This is a rather effective aircraft. Modernisation allows using a wide range of armament for targeted strikes, including ground ones. It can be equipped with guided weapons to hit sea targets,” the expert says.

Belarus might have taken part in upgrading Bashar Assad's air defence systems, according to him.

“These are S-125 and Pechora-2M systems. Belarusian and Russian firms are co-contractors in the consortium that performs these works. Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant produces chassis for these systems. You can find this information in numerous sources, though official Belarusian and Russian sources do not confirm it,” the military observer underlined.

He added that Belarus also produced radar equipment and sold it all over the world.

“In principle, it is not prohibited to supply these dual-use technologies to Syria. Besides, Syria may use electronic jamming systems, because deliveries of such systems can hardly be noticed. They are effective to jam precision-guided weapons, manned aircraft and drones. What concerns other ares, it is the modernisation of Syria's armour capabilities. The country has T-55 and T-72 tanks. Belarusian specialists might have participated in upgrading sighting and fire-control systems,” Aliaksandr Alesin adds.

He stressed that the programmes needed a long time.

“It scarcely takes place now. But it was done for a long time. Air defence systems and modernisation of Assad's air forces are the most important for Syria's defence. According to reports by Lukashenka and representatives of the Military of Defence, modern Belarusian technologies are used against precision-guided munition that the Americans want to use,” the expert summed up.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau