Third criminal case against Dashkievich?

Political prisoner Dzmitry Dashkievich has stopped the hunger strike.

Dzmitry’s lawyer met with him in the Mazyr reformatory. According to the political prisoner’s fiancée Nastassia Palazhanka, who went to the Mazyr reformatory together with the lawyer, Dashkievich has stopped the hunger strike today, 15 days since its start.

“He has stopped the hunger strike because the attitude towards him has changed completely. They talk to him with respect, and they behave. He believes this is an absolute victory, and he says he is grateful to the journalists, human rights activists and all people who care, his fellows. He is also grateful for the words of support from the Pope of Rome passed to Dzima during a meeting by the Apostolic Nuncio,” the political prisoner’s fiancée Nastassia Palazhanka told Radio Svaboda.

Dzmitry Dashkievich looks very exhausted, but he is cheerful, Nastassia Palazhanka says. According to her, the prisoner has been transferred to an isolation cell for one month:

“It is possible that they are collecting data for the third criminal case against Dzmitry, on article 411 - disobedience. This is why prisoners are normally transferred to the isolation cell for such a long time.”

In 2011, chairperson of the Malady Front Dzmitry Dashkievich was convicted to a two-year imprisonment for hooliganism. Allegedly, one day before the presidential elections 2010, together with his Malady Front fellow Eduard Lobau, he assaulted random passers-by in the streets. In court, Dashkievich denied his guilt and claimed the incident to be a provocation by the special services. After one year in the reformatory in Gorki, Dzmitry Dashkievich was transferred to the reformatory in Glubokaie – the official reason was rough violations of the regime. Several months after that, he was once again convicted to one addition year of imprisonment. On 19 September Dzmitry Dashkievich was taken to the Mazyr reformatory, and three days later he was locked in an isolation cell and started a hunger-strike.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Minsk has no intentions to stop smuggling

Analysts think Minsk continues oil products supplies without paying duties to Russia.

It continues even during an investigation launched by Moscow, Deutsche Welle reports.

Russia suspects that Belarus failed to fulfill its obligations when the country sharply increased sales of solvents and biodiesel in 2012 referring to the agreement on duty-free export. According to some estimates, Russia lost about $2 million in the past year. Experts think a dispute over the issue is an undeclared “oil war”, which is likely to be won by Russia, not Belarus.

Administrative measures vs promises

Sergei Agibalov, the head of the economics sector at the Institute for Energy and Finance (Moscow, Russia), says Moscow should have reacted much earlier to omissions in the previous contract within the Customs Union that allowed Belarus to sell some types of oil products on a duty-free basis. Minsk has been using this loophole for the second year, but its appetite is growing. The expert notes Belarus hinders signing new contracts on imposing export duties on all petroleum products. Belarus have recently shifted to biodiesel export that can also be sold without paying duties to Russia under the contract.

The expert says the Russian government commission estimated the size of the damage from duty-free sales and applied to the bodies of the Eurasian Economic Commission asking to review duty rates on export of some kinds of oil products outside the Customs Union.

The analyst supposes Russia has a rather wide range of methods to influence Belarus from adjustment of volumes of oil supplies to refusal to transfer tranches of the EurAsEc loan to the country. “Objective reasons for such restrictions by Russia have already appeared, for example refusal to allow Russians to privatize liquid assets in spite of years-long promises,” Sergei Agibalov says. With such an irresponsible macroeconomic policy as Minsk has, it has no choice but to bow down to Moscow, he thinks.

“We are both right, you and me”

Kirill Koktysh, an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Theory at Moscow Institute of International Relations, notes that both sides are right in the oil products dispute. Belarus is right because under the contract within the Customs Union the country didn't violate the right to export solvents and biodiesel without paying duties. Russia is right because the oversight by lawyers in the contract led to losses for Russia's budget.

The expert explains that Belarus continues its duty-free export even when the Russian government commission works, because “the Belarusian side will use all means to get money” even during the scandal until new terms of the contract on oil products export from the Customs Union are signed with Russia. All the more so because this trade brought more than $1.5 million to Belarus in the past year, Koktysh says.

The expert notes that Russia chose a mild scenario giving Minsk a chance to “save its face” provided that Minsk unconditionally signs an additional contract on export duties. If Minsk resists, Moscow may accuse it of duty-free exporting petrol and diesel fuel under the guise of “solvents”. “It may be interpreted as violation of the agreement on refund of duties by Minsk. Belarus may face a tough scenario – imposing sanctions on the country,” Kirill Koktysh is confident.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Lukashenka tries to frighten Western ambassadors

The dictator called the Brussels policy “defective and biased”.

“We expect that the European Union will turn down the senseless pressure on our country. And that it would take steps towards restoration of trust to itself and a very serious partner and a good neighbor”,- Aliaksandr Lukashenka pointed out on Friday while receiving letters of credence from the ambassador of a number of foreign countries, among which there were the new head of the diplomatic missions of Great Britain, Germany, Lithuania and Hungary, Interfax reports.

Lukashenka highlighted that Belarus doesn’t accept any pressure and interference into domestic affairs.

“A mentor tone and supposedly the only true Western world view can be being imposed to the countries, which see themselves as a part of the European Union in future, for as long as they want. But it doesn’t go for Belarus”, - the dictator claimed.

According to him, “on the way of evolutional transformation or, if you will, modernization of political and economic system in the interest of our people we will not act on the order of someone’s from outside”. At the same time, Lukashenka pointed out, “we agree with the Europeans in the realization of the final goals of our reforms: strengthening of Belarus’ positions as a modern, responsible, democratic European state”.

The dictator noted that today the European economy faces serious challenges. “There are even opinions of the threats to the integrity of the European Union”, - Lukashenka said. In such conditions, according to him, “it is more than ever important to unite the effort of the whole continent to fight the financial and economic difficulties and new trans-border problems”. “And all the indifferent and sensible people realize that. As well as they realize that in the European Union’s neighborhood a constructively minded Eurasian integration project is being developed”, - the Belarusian dictator noted.

In this situation Lukashenka is surprised by the “defectiveness and bias, with which some particular functionaries on Brussels, by the way more and more tearing away from the real need of the people of Europe, assess the events in our country”.

Later, talking to the diplomats over a glass of champagne in the conversation with the British ambassador Lukashenka suggested not to “create confrontation”. “We are ready to cooperate, if you are. I thinks it’s time to give up the stereotypes and cliché accusations on the part of the European Union”, - he claimed.

In his turn, the Great Britain’s ambassador Bruce Backnell said, that in his country they also hope for improving the relations with Belarus. “But we have a position which is not different from what we want from Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries”, - the British diplomat pointed out

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau.

Belarusian representative kicked out of PACE session

A scandal broke put in Strasbourg with the participation of a representative of Belarus.

The representative of Belarusian authorities had to leave the session of the political committee of the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) in Strasbourg where the Belarusian issue was being discussed, because he didn’t receive a special invitation.

The information about the scandal was announced on 4 October at a briefing in the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, BelaPAN reports.

An ITAR reporter asked the MFA’s press-secretary Andrei Savinykh to comment on the decisions taken by the session of the PACE’s political committee concerning Belarus as well as the scandal with the Belarusian representative being kicked out the assembly room.

Savinykh responded that the MFA’s position regarding this issue will be introduced later.

A special PACE’s resolution on Belarus will be prepared before January 2013. The Estonian parliament member, the special reporter on Belarus, Andres Herkel said on 4 October.

“The work on the document will start already in November”, - Herkel pointed out. – It’s totally possible that in the January of the next year the report will be ready”.

According to him, the Assembly will first of all have to give a political assessment of the parliamentary elections in Belarus.

“Our latest report dates back to the beginning of 2012. We regret that the situation with human rights and democracy has only worsened ever since”.

“Today there are twelve political prisoners in Belarus, - the reporter stated. The health condition of some of them causes particular concern”.

The head of Belarusian Helsinki Committee Aleg Gulak and the deputy head of the human rights center Viasna Valiantsin Stefanovich took part in the PACE’s session which was open for media.

We would remind that PACE assessed the parliamentary elections as not corresponding to the international democratic standards. It is worth mentioning that Belarus is not a member of the Council of Europe Parliamentary Assembly (PACE).

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Don’t stop boycott

More than 2000 independent observers all over the country have reported that the elections failed in Belarus!

According to the summary data of the observation, in Minsk only about 34% of the voters came to the elections; in all other Belarusian cities the number reached 43%.

The reason behind such a significant difference between these numbers and the official results of the “elections” (55% in Minsk and 75% in Belarus) is, first of all, the falsified protocols of the electoral commissions who nearly doubled the number of the votes. Second of all, the count of votes wasn’t transparent at any voting station.

But it’s not only the observers who reported extremely poor voting activity. Every voter who came to a voting station found it empty. Now we all know that the powers have faked the results of the “elections”.

By boycotting the fake elections, the people have shown the powers and the entire world that the Belarusians are not a cattle to be taken where the dictator and his servants please.

During the boycott campaign, several political forces formed an effective coalition: the Belarusian Christian Democracy, Belaruski Rukh, Malady Front, civil campaign European Belarus, the United Civil Party, Rada of Belarusian Intelligentia, and the trade union of radio and electronic industry. And today, after the boycott of the fake elections, we see that the majority of the people want changes!

What the real opposition called for, was exactly the same what most of the Belarusians who don’t trust the dictatorship felt. That’s how the boycott of the “parliamentary elections” was possible. But the boycott itself cannot change this regime that will fight for its privileges and money till the last breath.

In order to replace the dictator’s junta with the powers elected by the nation, we should keep the boycott of the dictator’s regime and all its institutions. And we should start with the lying state media and the state trade union that help the powers rob the people.

Boycott of the state media

According to independent social scientists, only 28% of Belarusians trust the state media, while the independent media have the trust of 32%.

At the same time, 64% watch the Belarusian TV (BT, ONT, STV etc); 2% watch BelSAT.

39% listen to the Belarusian state radio; 8% prefer independent channels (Radio Racja, Euroradio, Radio Svaboda, Deutsche Welle, Polskie Radio, BBC and Voice of America).

7% of Belarusians subscribe to the three central state periodicals (Sovietskaia Bielorussia, Respublika and Zviazda), while 1% subscribe to the four major non-governmental papers (Narodnaia Volia, Nasha Niva, Svobodnyie Novosti, Belorusy I Rynok).

However, on the Internet independent websites enjoy a much greater popularity than the state online media. For example, the websites charter97.org, Belarus Partizan, Belorusskie Novosti, Nasha Niva, Radio Svaboda, Solidarnost, BelaPAN, Narodnaia Volia, Euroradio and AFN have a daily audience of 3% Belarusians, while the state websites (BelTA, Sovietskaia Bielorussia, STV) – only 0,7%.

Within the boycott campaign of the state media, we should refuse to subscribe to the state media, and should promote independent media. Each supporter of democratic changes should make a contribution. If by the end of 2013 the number of viewers, listeners and readers of the state media become three times less, and the audience of the independent media becomes three times larger, we can say that the boycott succeeded.

Boycott of state trade unions

Today independent social scientists report that 27% of employable Belarusians trust state trade unions, while 34% trust independent trade unions. Meanwhile, officially 43% of the adult population are members of state trade unions, and only 4% belong to independent trade unions.

Nearly half of the members of state trade unions, 48%, are not satisfied with the state trade unions’ work. The majority of the members of free and independent trade unions, 86%, give a much higher esteem of the work of these trade unions and their leaders; only 7% are dissatisfied.

A spontaneous outflow of members from state trade unions began in the end of 2011 in different regions of the country. For example, 600 members left the union of the enterprise Granit in Mikashevichy, and 200 of them applied to join an independent trade union; 150 members left the union of the state-owned enterprise Pinskdriev.

The outflow can have different reasons, such as low salaries or humiliations from the management. The third reason is named today for the first time: the workers say that the state trade unions not only fail to protect their interests, but even participate in daily humiliations and pressure.

The key aspects of the boycott campaign of the state trade unions are constant criticism of the unions and promotion of the free and independent trade unions. Current members of free and independent trade unions, and all supporters of democratic changes in Belarus should join this campaign.

If by the end of 2013 1,5 mln members of the state trade unions (who have given a negative esteem to the unions’ activity) leave the unions, while half of them join the free and independent trade unions, we can say that this stage of the boycott succeeded.

Furthermore, in 2014 we can start boycott financial institutions and sources of the regime’s funding, but this stage can begin only after the boycott of the state media and trade unions is completed.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Vladimir Gostyukhin advises Lukashenka to quit

Vladimir Gostyukhin has always been an admirer Alyaksandr Lukashenka and dubious propagandist of Belarusian orders. But even he began to say it's time to hand over power in Belarus.

“I contributed to his coming to power in the 1990s. I was his election agent,” Vladimir Gostyukhin said to URA.ru. “A different matter that being a big bright leader he finds it difficult to hand over power: he thinks everything will collapse without him. It's our problem: how to hand over power quietly and continue to develop. Mr Lukashenka, in my opinion, should quit for some time, but... We had an interesting prime minister, Sidorski. He was moved into the shadow because he showed himself as too bright person and this cause jelousy. Mr Lukashenka is more of a symbol today. What works now is the system he launched. He used to gather intellectuals for talks and round table discussions. It doesn't happen now. He gives awards, but doesn't invite people to talk...”

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau

Dictator 2.5 times increased his private fund

The amount the reserve fund of Lukashenka in 2013 will be 1 912 951 760 000 rubbles or 225 million USD.

Such parameters are built into the budget project for 2013, which is going to be approved by the old membership of the parliament. The parliament members are unlikely to pay attention to the fact that the expected amount of the Lukashenka’s reserve fund is exceeding the maximum foreseen in the Budget Code of Belarus. In particular, the article 43 of the law states that the amount of the reserve fund of the head of the state cannot exceed 1% of the budget income, Narodnaya Volya reports.

The income for 2013 in its turn is planned not on a very high level – 121,7 trillion Belarusian rubbles (or taking the current exchange rate of 8500 BYR per USD) – 14,3 billion United States dollars. So the reserve fund of the Belarusian ruler will take 1,5 – 1,6% of the state budget. This is 10 times more than the fund for force major situations, natural disasters, incidents and catastrophes; more than the fund of the state producer goods reserves; more than the whole financial support foreseen in the budget for legal persons and entrepreneurs; 2 times more than the whole expenses on culture; twice more than the physical culture and sport.

At the same time the Budget Code does not limit Lukashenka in spending this money. The part 2 of the article 43 states that “the spending of the reserve fund of the president of Republic of Belarus is carried out based on the decisions of the president of Republic of Belarus”. It means that we can spend the fund arbitrary. It is only known that from this fund the scholarships to the talented youth are paid.

However, as to the amount of the reserve fund of Lukashenka there is a huge room for a maneuver because it is not supposed to “usually” exceed 1% of the budget. It means that the law implies some exceptions from the general rule.

However, it is necessary to admit that the dictator’s appetites grow. Only a year ago in 2011 the reserve fund was 90 million dollars.

Commentator Aliaksandr Krasnapeutsau